EUR/USD is not currently embedding a great deal of geopolitical risk. Economists expect some support to the USD, dragging the pair down to the 1.13 level.
Not much geopolitical risk in the price
“Unless the Ukrainian situation takes a decisive turn for the better, we see mostly downside risks for EUR/USD this week as the dollar could find some support and the EUR may start to embed more geopolitical risk.”
“We expect the eurozone data flow to be quite encouraging this week, starting with today’s PMIs which should see a rebound from the Omicron-induced slump in January. That should mostly be priced in by now, and we doubt that data will be able to give any material lift to the euro in the coming days.”
“A move back to 1.1300 would be warranted by fundamentals and the current market environment.”